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Sunday, February 6, 2011

The power of Expectation


From Wikipedia :

In probability theory, the expected value (or expectation, or mathematical expectation, or mean, or the first moment) of a random variable is the weighted average of all possible values that this random variable can take on.
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If you are doing a graduate program in Electrical Engineering, an entire four-credit course could be based on expected values of our dear stochastic process. My professor used to say "Most of the time, you do not require a perfect sample of a signal. Based on the expected values and your observation, you can arrive at correct decisions with minimum probability of error.

Now, let me tell you about my tryst with my observations and expectations.
During my pre-university, I used to commute by namma(our) BMTC buses. We had four buses that particularly routed through our locality, which meant I could get off the bus few feet away from our home in Bangalore. I used to make a note of what time you could anticipate these buses at the two ends of my commute. Whenever I didn't have to travel, the buses were almost on time. What punctuality, impressive! - I used to think.

When I actually waited for one of our buses, none arrived! One day, I was hell bent on catching an "our" bus and waited quite long. According to the statistics I had at least one bus should have arrived at that particular stop within twenty minutes of mine getting there. I waited, and waited more than an hour. Then decided on hopping into some bus in my direction and later walking home from the nearest bus stop. Guess what - I find a seat for myself in the bus and am pulling out my handsfree from my bagpack, "our" bus overtakes the bus I'm in, leaving me furious!

My statistics helped everyone in our locality except me, huh!

That's not all. Yesterday, in the laundromat I decided on using the washing machine that was closer to the dryer. I pour in the detergent and load the clothes and insert coins. That machine simply returned the coins, much to my dismay.

There are tons of instances wherein simple things, that everyone else finds easy to get, elude me! Why me?

PostScript:
I tell myself "don't expect, be surprised"

Current Thought:
How do the radio stations know my current mood? They seem to play apt songs! All the stations!

Current Song:
With or Without You by U2
"See the stone set in your eyes
See the thorn twist in your side
I wait for you..."

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